The 2021 Kentucky Derby will be run May 1, 2021 at Churchill Downs. The race will feature 20 of the best three-year-olds in the United States. This is the place to go to get to know the best contenders, and the horses you can take a pass on.
The 2021 Kentucky Derby will be run on May 1, 2021, at Churchill Downs. The race will feature 20 of the best three-year-olds in the United States. They will run a mile and a quarter on the dirt for a $3 million purse, an iconic blanket of roses, and a place in horse racing lore.
As usual, Florida plays a major part. Florida Derby winner Known Agenda is one of the best horses coming into this year’s Kentucky Derby. Soup and Sandwich, a good second behind Known Agenda, was bred in Florida. And, Tampa Bay Derby winner Helium is an intriguing, undefeated longshot.
We will take a look at four horses that can win the Derby, and why they are real contenders. We will also look at four horses who are taking a lot of interest but are ones you can toss out of your handicapping.
| Horses |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Essential Quality |
+315 | +275 | +300 |
|
Rock Your World |
+450 | +500 | +420 |
|
Known Agenda |
+700 | +700 | +700 |
|
Hot Rod Charlie |
+800 | +1000 | +1050 |
|
Highly Motivated |
+1000 | +1050 | +1050 |
|
Medina Spirit |
+1400 | +1200 | +1100 |
Why he can win: He has gotten good at the right time. He wasn’t the most precocious horse, but his pedigree — by Curlin out of Byrama, a graded stakes-quality older horse — suggested he would need some time anyway. Two back he trounced allowance foes, and last out he put it all together in one of the most live preps, the Florida Derby. With lots of speed to chase, he should be able to make a powerful, winning run.
Why he can win: He has never been beaten in five-lifetime starts. He was last year’s champion two-year-old, but two starts this year have shown he has been able to keep up with the best in his class at age three. He is pace-versatile, giving him adaptability that should help him in a 20-horse field. And, he has already proven he can win at Churchill Downs.
Why he can win: He is a stakes winner at Churchill Downs, coming into the Kentucky Derby in smart form. He is trained by Ken McPeek, who doesn’t always have horses fully cranked first off a layoff, and yet he won the Lexington in his first start of the year. A midpack to closing type, he will love the sharp pace in front of him. With his pedigree, the fact that he was a two-year-old stakes winner was a surprise and a testament to his talent, because he is bred to be very good at three and beyond.
Why he can win: He is a pace-versatile longshot who has passed every test so far. He is not the most seasoned horse in the race, with only three starts. But, all three have been good: he won twice at Woodbine last year, then stretched out to two turns and handled dirt well in the Tampa Bay Derby. He has won those three races with three very different trips, giving the Mark Casse trainee the versatility to adapt to a 20-horse field.
Why toss him out: He is getting a lot of steam off of that Santa Anita Derby win, and he did keep on after setting a sharp pace. But, he’ll have more company upfront this time, and he has to go an extra furlong. Though Candy Ride is one of the better sires out there, the Classic distance often tests his progeny, making the extra distance a question. And, it’s hard to get excited about a short-priced horse who has run just three times.
Why toss him out: Trainer Bob Baffert does know how to win a Kentucky Derby, as he has won a record-tying six of them. But, whether they’re superhorses like American Pharoah or merely good ones like Authentic, Baffert doesn’t win Kentucky Derbies with prep also-rans. People will see Baffert and overbet him, and there’s also the problem of him being more early speed in a speed-packed race.
Why toss him out: Some wise guys are tipping Mandaloun to win, claiming his Louisiana Derby was too bad to be believed. But, horses who don’t do well in their last prep rarely win the Kentucky Derby. Furthermore, that last-out prep was the Louisiana Derby: a race whose winner hasn’t won a Derby winner since Grindstone in 1996. The smart move is to take Mandaloun’s final prep at face value and look elsewhere for a Derby winner.
Why toss him out: He is a speed horse in a race with a lot of speed horses. Even though the Arkansas Derby is usually a good prep, this year it drew only a field of six, and he wasn’t facing the best horses on the Derby trail. Sure, he spanked Caddo River that day, but Caddo River will be a Derby longshot for a reason. And, trainer Steve Asmussen doesn’t exactly spell Derby success: he’s 0-for-22.
Only 20,000 to 30,000 people will be allowed into Churchill Downs to see the 2021 Kentucky Derby in person. Fortunately, even if you can’t make it to the track, you can still bet the Kentucky Derby online from the comfort of your home.
Check out the recommended online racebooks listed below - like Bovada or BetOnline. All of them are trusted racebooks with excellent bonuses, so find which one offers the best bonuses for you and then place your Kentucky Derby bets!
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